The permutations

Scotland’s 18-3 defeat to South Africa followed by bonus point wins against Tonga (45-17) and Romania (84-0), coupled with results elsewhere in the group, leave Scotland needing to win against Ireland in order to progress, with further requirements as listed below.

Scotland will reach the knockout stages if:

• They win, with or without a try bonus point, and deny Ireland any bonus points, going through in second place.
• They win with a try bonus point by five points or more, and Ireland get one bonus point. In this scenario, a win by 21 points or more would guarantee first place in the group.

Scotland will be eliminated if:

• They win without a bonus point, but Ireland do get a bonus point.
• Any scenario where Ireland pick up two bonus points.
• They draw or lose the match.

What they said:

Starting stand-off Finn Russell said: “I think everyone knows how a big a week it is for us. It was a great performance from the boys on Saturday night (against Romania), so that will set us up well for this week.

“Ireland are an amazing team, number one in the world, so it’s going to be difficult obviously. I think with the boys that we’ve got we can put Ireland under a lot of pressure with our attack, and hopefully hold them out with our defence.

“There won’t be many, but one thing we’ve talked about after the South Africa game is if there’s any chances we have to take it. If we’re going to beat the number one team in the world, we’re going to have to get one or two chances and take them.”

The team

The stats

• Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones will start together in the centres for the ninth time in 2023.
• Scotland’s last win against Ireland came at Scottish Gas Murrayfield in 2017, when they won 27-22 in the Guinness Six Nations.
• Darcy Graham has the joint-most tries in the tournament currently with five, and the joint-most clean line breaks with nine.
• Against Romania, Ben Healy became the second player in history to take 10+ conversions without missing in a single men’s Rugby World Cup match.
• Chris Harris has made the joint-most successful offloads in the tournament with seven.
• As a team, Scotland have made the second most clean line breaks in the tournament with 42.